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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd