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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation saw its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.