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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of votes that came in later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where yesterday turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, where Cuomo would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But the winner added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and people struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously went for Zohran this year. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might go over two million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I wish he does so then none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added many Republicans on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. So there existed a little resistance. But no, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in America could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.