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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But this year's competition is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans improving together. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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