A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
